2030 vision; Concerns around challenging economic conditions over the next five years

Posted on: 25 Apr 2025

Consumer sentiment research undertaken on behalf of credit unions in the Republic of Ireland (ROI) and Northern Ireland (NI) has found that both ROI and NI consumers are broadly aligned in a sense that economic and financial conditions may be quite challenging for the next 5 years as increasing concerns around tariffs, infrastructure shortfalls and cost-of-living pressures weigh on sentiment.

However, consumers in both ROI and NI also appear to be seeing some more encouraging signs in their economic circumstances with household incomes expected to be higher in 2030 and this may be an element in the very broadly based expectation that house prices will be higher in both ROI and NI in five years’ time.

The report also looks at recent economic developments to suggest why consumer thinking in ROI and NI may be moving in a similar direction.

Economic Climate

In ROI, 38% of consumers expect the economy to be weaker in 2030 while 29% expect it to be stronger. In NI, 37% expect the local economy to be weaker in 2030 while 27% expect it to be stronger. ROI consumers are notably more downbeat now about the medium term outlook than in previous years whereas NI consumers are marginally less pessimistic than previously.

Jobs Market

Views in relation to the jobs market, which is often seen by consumers as the touchstone for the health of the economy, as it affects them, further underlines the challenging outlook.

37% of consumers in ROI believe that the jobs market will be weaker in five years’ time compared to 25% who think it will be stronger. In NI, 39% of consumers forecast a weaker jobs market, with 22% believing that it will be stronger.

Household Incomes & House Prices

Although consumers are concerned about what sort of economic environment they may face in 2030, on balance slightly more consumers in the Republic think their own household incomes will be higher in 2030 than think their household incomes will drop (34% v 29%) while consumers in Northern Ireland are marginally more positive on balance about the outlook for their household incomes in 2030 (31% expecting higher incomes v 23% expecting a drop).

The expected resilience of household Incomes as well as increasing inflation generally may be important elements in very pronounced expectations that house prices will be higher in 2030 than they are at present. 71% of consumers in the Republic and 66% of consumers in Northern Ireland expect house prices to be higher in five years’ time.

This special Credit Union Consumer sentiment survey research (in partnership with Core Research) was commissioned by the Irish League of Credit Unions to examine consumer thinking as to how economic activity, job prospects, inflation, house prices and household incomes might look in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland in 5 years’ time.

Commenting on the findings, the research author, Economist Austin Hughes said; With the threat of a trade war highlighting common global concerns and improving domestic activity and incomes of late giving some shared sense of more positive developments, the sentiment survey suggests there are good grounds for more similarities than differences in the views of consumers in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland on their economic and financial circumstances.

Commenting on the findings, David Malone CEO of the ILCU said; While consumers in both the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland are understandably concerned about a troubling global economic outlook, the expectation of a modest improvement of incomes and higher house prices suggests many consumers see a future of opportunity as well as challenge. Whatever their future may hold, consumers can face it with more confidence with the support of their local credit union.

Also noting the research results, Martin Fisher, Northern Ireland Manager of the ILCU said;
“In an increasingly turbulent economy, it’s clear that credit unions have a critical role to play in supporting the financial needs of ordinary people. In Northern Ireland, the recent announcement of a public consultation on the reform of credit union legislation is an important first step in enabling credit unions to realise their full potential and deliver even greater services and support to the communities they serve.”

The research has been released to align with the All-Island Credit Union Sector Conference, taking place on Friday, 25^th April at the ICC Waterfront in Belfast. Hosted by the Irish League of Credit Unions, the conference will gather over 500 credit union leaders from across the island to discuss recent sector developments and explore how increased collaboration can further strengthen the exceptional services provided to more than 3.6 million members.

Notes to Editor

A full analysis of the survey findings is below.
The (ROI) Credit Union Irish Consumer Sentiment Survey is a monthly survey of a nationally representative sample of 1,000 adults. The Northern Ireland Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Survey is a quarterly survey of a representative sample of 350 adults. Core Research undertake the survey administration and data collection for both surveys. This tranche of the two surveys was live between the 6^th and 18^th February 2025.

Survey Analysis

This paper analyses the results of a special Credit Union Consumer sentiment survey (in partnership with Core Research) examining Consumer thinking as to how economic activity, job prospects, inflation, house prices and household incomes might look in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland in five years’ time.

Key Findings

On balance, consumers in the Republic of Ireland expect a weaker economy, less favourable job prospects and higher inflation in 2030…
…but tone of survey hints at a slowdown rather than a slump ahead
Survey details suggest tariff threats not the only worry for consumers
71% of consumers think house prices will be higher in 2030, 11% expect a fall
34% say their incomes will be higher but 29% see a decline
Northern Ireland consumers also think the economy will weaken over the next five years but not as much as previously thought
Northern Ireland job prospects seen notably weaker in 2030
66% of Northern Ireland consumers see higher house prices in 2030 while 11% think they will be lower
31% of Northern Ireland consumers expect their household income to be stronger in 2030 but 23% think their income will be weaker
Overall, consumers in Republic more positive on five-year outlook for economy and jobs than consumers in Northern Ireland but even more strongly of the view that inflation and house prices will be higher in 2030
More similarities than differences between consumer thinking in Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, with common concerns on the ‘macro’ outlook and mixed views as to whether household incomes will be higher or lower in 2030
Commonalities in consumer thinking may partly reflect much improved (and under-appreciated?) NI economic performance of late.
Survey hints that, from a consumer perspective, economies of Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland have been on similar rather than divergent paths in recent years

Introduction and background

Recent events suggest that a week can be a very, very long time in geopolitics, and, by extension, in the outlook for incomes and the employment prospects of consumers.

Economic theory suggests that consumers tend to over-emphasise the importance of recent or current developments in assessing their longer-term futures. However, they also have to make decisions informed by how they think the future might look, decisions that often shape their own prospects.

This special survey asks consumers to look beyond the very short-term and consider the longer-term outlook for a range of key variables such as economic activity, employment, inflation, house prices and household incomes.
Whereas the questions in the standard monthly consumer sentiment survey are couched in terms of a 12-month timeframe, this survey asks consumers how conditions might evolve over the next five years, and how they think their economic and financial circumstances might look in 2030.

The responses should shed some light on current consumer thinking both in terms of how large and how long-lasting current global trade-related difficulties might prove as well as on their broader views on the economic and financial outlook. By comparing responses in early 2025 to those given at the start of 2024, we can get a sense as to whether consumers see their longer-term fortunes improving or worsening.

It should be noted that this survey was carried out in February 2025 before US President Trump’s sweeping tariff announcements on April 2^nd, or the sudden and partial reversal of those measures on April 9^th, or the multiple adjustments in various pronouncements on the implementation of tariffs in the interim.

It can be argued that the timing of the survey captures the broad expectation of tariffs but avoids an excessive near-term influence of one or other iteration on consumers assessments of the longer-term outlook. The responses aren’t overwhelmed by some of the more recent extreme swings in thinking around the impact of US policy changes, but they do capture a sense of a marked emerging change in the global economic landscape.

We can also glean some sense of different ‘local’ influences on the thinking of consumers by examining variations in the views of consumers in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland on their medium-term economic and financial prospects.

Section I; Is tomorrow more troubling for consumers in the Republic of Ireland just because of President Trump?

As the diagram below indicates, more consumers in the Republic of Ireland now think the Irish economy will be weaker in five years’ time than think it will be stronger. Some 38% of consumers think that the economy will be weaker in 2030 while 29% expect it to be stronger.

As the diagram also indicates, this result marks a notably poorer outlook than that seen in recent years when slightly more consumers envisaged a better rather than a weaker future.

It is not surprising that the 2022 survey saw the most positive five-year outlook as the economy was just emerging, and in a stronger shape than had been widely envisaged from the impact of Covid-19.

The 2023 and 2024 surveys were taken at a time when consumers were adversely impacted by cost-of-living pressures and this prompted somewhat fewer positive and somewhat more negative views on the five-year outlook for the Irish economy. The 2025 results show a further ‘trend’ decline in positive views and a notable step-up in negative thinking.

The weaker 2025 survey results could, at least to some extent, reflect a view common to most formal forecasts for the Irish economy that a ‘golden period’ in recent years, in terms of robust and resilient growth that has seen the economy operating close to capacity, must give way to slower if still positive growth in the years ahead.

However, this is unlikely to be the dominant influence on changes in consumer thinking in the 2025 survey.
Our sense from the demographic profile of responses is that a range of factors including a more challenging global backdrop, coupled with ongoing financial strains and infrastructure difficulties are weighing on consumer thinking in relation to the future. The survey would seem to suggest that consumers think tariffs are not the only test we face in keeping the Irish economy on a strong growth path.

There are some notable variations across demographics in the 2025 survey. More Dublin consumers expect the Irish economy to be stronger in five years’ time than see it being weaker while Connacht/Ulster based consumers are comparatively pessimistic in their thinking. Although consumers based in Munster are more negative than those in Dublin, they are more positive on balance than in other areas.

As a result, it seems that consumers in those areas with the highest number of multinational companies are marginally less negative than those in other areas about the medium-term outlook for the Irish economy in early 2025. As consumers in these areas might be most affected by the fallout from a trade war, this might suggest that tariff threats are not the key reason for expectations that the Irish economy will not be as strong in 2030 as today.

It should also be noted that female consumers were slightly more negative than males. Those struggling to make ends meet were markedly more negative than those making ends meet with ease, with the latter group on balance still positive about the five-year outlook for the economy.

Within age groups, there were more positive than negative views on the five-year outlook among the under 25’s and over 65’s while, in stark contrast, there were twice as many negative as positive views among those aged 45 to 54.

Compared to the 2024 survey results, there was a somewhat larger move towards negative responses among males than among females, older consumers were significantly less positive than they had been and those having difficulty making ends meet were notably more negative than a year ago.

Jobs market seen as the pressure point for economic strains

Not surprisingly, with consumers gloomier about the medium-term outlook for the Irish economy, views on the outlook for jobs have also weakened materially compared to the 2024 survey.

However, the change in thinking on jobs weakened even further than did thinking on the overall strength of the economy. As in other elements of the Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Survey (in partnership with Core Research), it seems that consumers see the jobs market is seen as the touchstone for the health of the Irish economy.

Again, as the diagram below indicates, in marked contrast to previous survey results, more consumers now think job prospects will be poorer in five years’ time than think they will be better.

Although sustained buoyancy in the jobs market has been a key feature of the Irish economy in recent years, far fewer consumer now expect a stronger jobs market in five years’ time than was the case a year ago, while there was also a clear increase in the number envisaging a weaker employment environment.

Again, the fact that Unemployment is now at historically low levels that are seen as signalling full employment might be seen as a limiting factor for further improvement. However, the clear step-down in positive responses and corresponding pick-up in negative responses seems to signal expectation of a cooling in employment prospects in five years’ time rather than just that we have ‘hit the ceiling’.

As in the case of the general economic outlook, Dublin-based consumers and those making ends meet with ease were, on balance, marginally positive about the outlook of jobs while those aged over 45 were more pessimistic than younger age groups. The deterioration in thinking on jobs compared to the 2024 survey was broadly based across demographic groupings.

Inflation has eased but cost-of-living concerns are far from over

The past year has seen a notable easing in inflation, but it would appear that consumers concerns around the cost of living remain significant. As the diagram below indicates, the majority of consumers now think inflation will be higher in five years’ time, a significantly more pessimistic result than that seen in the 2024 survey.

As with other elements of the survey, we should mention some possible impact from ‘base’ effects. It should be noted that the January 2024 survey period saw the release of data showing inflation stood at 4.6% in December 2023 whereas the February 2025 survey period saw the release of January 2025 inflation at 1.9%.

On this basis, it would not be entirely unsurprising for the 2025 survey to envisage somewhat higher future inflation than its 2024 counterpart. However, it is notable that some 63% of consumers now expect inflation to be higher in five years’ time, when the current rate is broadly in line with the European Central Bank’s 2% target.

A 10-point rise in the share of consumers who think inflation will be higher coupled with a 9-point drop in the number who think it will be lower suggests a clear worsening in consumer thinking about the outlook of inflation.
At the margin, some element of this could reflect concerns around the potential impact of tariffs on inflation- US consumers 5-year inflation outlook recently hit its highest level since early 1991. However, our sense is that the experience of Irish consumers through recent years is the most influential factor in this result.

The negative view on inflation was broadly shared across all demographic groups but tended to be come notably more pronounced with age and with difficulty making ends meet.

Consumers feel house prices have further to rise

While day-to-day living costs are a major concern to consumers, one area where prices attract particular interest is housing. As the diagram below indicates consumers are even more strongly of the opinion in early 2025 that house prices will be higher in five years’ time than they were a year ago.

Compared to the variations in responses to other elements of the survey, the strength of thinking on the outlook for house prices is notable. Some 71% of consumers think Irish house prices will be higher in 2030 than today, compared to just 11% who expect them to be lower.

The slightly stronger expectations for house price gains over the next five years should be seen in the context of official data that suggest house price inflation had accelerated from 2.3% (October 2023 data) at the time of the 2024 survey to 9.4% (November 2024 data) at the time of the 2025 survey.

In contrast to thinking on the outlook for consumer price inflation where the current experience of comparatively contained inflation at present relative to the recent past may be an element in expectations for higher inflation, it would seem that consumer thinking on house prices is not shaped by a view that current fairly strong house price growth might be expected to prompt a future correction.

What makes thinking on house prices even more striking is that it comes in circumstances where consumers appear to be a lot more negative about the general economic outlook and job prospects, in particular.

This might suggest significant inconsistencies in consumer thinking or, more likely an entrenched view that a shortfall in housing supply will persist, meaning that even in the event of softer demand conditions, the imbalance in the housing market means a correction is unlikely.

Of course, another possibility is that any softening of Irish economic growth and job gains might be sufficiently contained or offset by other factors, thereby sustaining strength in housing demand relative to supply. In this context, it is interesting to see what the survey says consumers envisage happening to their own household finances over the next five years.

Slowdown or slump? Improving incomes suggest the former

In spite of weaker expectations for the economy as a whole and for job prospects in particular, slightly more Irish consumers are of the view that their household income will be stronger rather than weaker in five years’ time.

As the diagram below indicates, the February 2025 survey found that some 34% of consumers expect their household income to be stronger in 2030 than today whereas 29% envisage their incomes being lower. While the gap between expected gains and losses is smaller than in previous years, it remains in positive territory.

It may be worth teasing out possible reasons for the less dramatic deterioration in consumers expectations for incomes than for economic activity and employment. One consideration is that some consumers may not feel their own personal or household financial circumstances are entirely dependent on the ‘macro’ economic environment. Traditionally, this group would include those relying on welfare payments or those moving toward retirement as well as a notably smaller cohort at the top of the income spectrum.

In this context, a demographic breakdown of the 2025 survey results suggests those on lower incomes, those having difficulty making ends meet and consumers over the age of 45 are notably more negative in respect of their future incomes than others. In contrast, improving income expectations are positively correlated with current incomes and negatively correlated with age.

In turn, this might suggest that consumers who are young and/or currently ‘comfortable’ think that the economy will remain sufficiently robust to deliver an environment in which their incomes can improve.

As these are also the groupings most likely to be homebuyers, the expectation of improved incomes in five years’ time can also be seen as consistent with the expectations of continuing gains in house prices (in circumstances of still limited supply).

It could also be argued that this particular combination of survey results, entailing softer economic activity and employment together with rising house prices suggests no expectation of any dramatic sustained expansion of infrastructure or welfare spend in coming years.

Section II; Northern Ireland consumers not quite as negative on economic outlook as previously but prices pressures expected to persist

As has been the case in each of the previous two years, Northern Ireland consumers remain of the view that, on balance, the local economy will be somewhat weaker in five years’ time.

However, as the diagram below indicates, in contrast to the shift in thinking of consumers in the Republic of Ireland over the past year, expectations for the Northern Irish economy are notably less negative than they were previously, with a marked easing in concerns evident since the survey was last taken in January 2024.

In part, the reduced negativity in relation to the medium-term outlook for the Northern Ireland economy likely reflects greater scope for local policy initiatives following the return of the Northern Ireland assembly after a two-year absence just after the January 2024 survey was taken.

It may also reflect continuing signs of improvement in the Northern Ireland economy of late that could suggest to some consumers a possible departure from the longstanding conventional view as to its present and future path. In this context, in section III, we examine some important developments that suggest a stronger current picture for the Northern Ireland economy than is often suggested.

It should also be noted that while most recent forecasts envisage a future of modest economic growth in the medium-term for the Northern Ireland economy, these tend to envisage some improvement relative to the performance of the past five years in contrast to forecasts for the UK as a whole, or for the economy of the Republic of Ireland, where the growth outlook is seen weakening materially in coming years relative to long-term trends.

It should be remembered that the latest Credit Union consumer sentiment survey for Northern Ireland is survey was undertaken in February was undertaken in February before the full details of April 2^nd US tariffs were announced and the 10% tariff differential in favour of the UK relative to the EU was signalled.

However, the structure of the Northern Ireland economy, with an important role for public sector-driven activity makes it notably less vulnerable directly to a poorer outlook for global trade than is the case for the UK or the Republic of Ireland in particular.

While sentiment varied across demographic groupings, those aged under 35, those with higher incomes and grater educational qualifications were notably more positive whereas those aged over 55 and those citing difficulty making ends meet at present were markedly more likely to hold negative views on the medium-term outlook for the Northern Ireland economy.

Northern Ireland consumers more negative on outlook for jobs

In contrast to an easing in negativity around the five-year outlook for economic activity, the 2025 Credit Union consumer sentiment survey for Northern Ireland found consumers to be more negative about the outlook for jobs than a year ago, as the diagram below indicates.

The unemployment rate has fallen rapidly in Northern Ireland in recent years (over the five-year period from 3.5% in Nov-Jan 2019 to 1.5% in Nov-Jan 2025 while across the UK unemployment increased from 3.9% to 4.4% over the same timeframe).

These survey results might suggest that some consumers may sense the current ‘sweet spot’ in terms of the Northern Ireland jobs market may not persist, at least in its current intensity. Predominantly negative views were held across most demographics with the exception of those aged 25 to 34 and middle-income earners.

It might be noted that in spite of the weaker survey response in 2025, the results suggest that the majority of Northern Ireland consumers (some 55% of those surveyed) see Northern Ireland jobs prospects stronger or stable in five years’ time.

It should also be noted that most forecasters envisage a modest uptick in unemployment in Northern Ireland in coming years notwithstanding some projected improvement in activity.

Price pressures remain a concern for Northern Ireland consumers

As the diagram below indicates, there is a somewhat stronger sense among Northern Ireland consumers in 2025 that inflation will be higher in five years’ time than was the case a year ago.

At the margin, part of this increase might be attributed to the fact that the latest published inflation rate was slightly lower when the latest sentiment survey was compiled than just over a year earlier at the time of the previous survey (the December 2024 UK inflation rate was 3.5% compared to 4.2% in November 2023). So, arguably, a year ago, consumers may have felt there was a little more scope for inflation to ease in the future from that more elevated rate.

However, we don’t think this technical effect is a key driver of the thinking of Northern Ireland consumers that inflation will be higher in five years’ time in the 2025 sentiment survey.

Our sense is that increased negativity around the longer-term inflation outlook in the 2025 survey primarily reflects a widespread sense that living costs will remain an issue for consumers for the foreseeable future.

Two-thirds of Northern Ireland consumers expect house prices to be higher in 2030

The 2025 Credit Union consumer sentiment survey assessment of the five-year outlook implies a broadly based view that house prices will be higher in 2030 than they are today.

As the diagram below indicates, two out of three Northern Ireland consumers (66%) expect house prices in Northern Ireland to be higher in five years’ time while only one in nine consumers (11%) expect them to be lower.

To a significant extent, the broadly based view that house prices will continue to rise in coming years reflects the strong price momentum that consumers are seeing in the Northern Ireland housing market at present, coupled with a clear belief that it can continue in coming years.

House prices may be lower in Northern Ireland than in many other parts of the UK or in the Republic of Ireland, but the pace of increase has been stronger than elsewhere of late. The latest Office for National Statistics data show house prices in Northern Ireland up 9.0% y/y in January 2025, almost twice as fast as the 4.9% increase for the UK over the same period and slightly faster than the 8.1% rise in the Republic of Ireland.

Household incomes expected to hold up in spite of economic uncertainty

While Northern Ireland consumers widely expect living costs and house prices in particular to increase over the next five years, on balance, household incomes are seen holding broadly steady, as the diagram below indicates.

In circumstances where economic growth is seen slightly softer and job prospects clearly weaker, this expected income outturn might be regarded as a positive result.

It would seem to suggest that Northern Ireland consumers see any moderation in economic growth through to 2030 as being contained and not spilling over into a deterioration in household financial circumstances-this would also be consistent with the expectation of continued increases in Northern Ireland house prices.

Looking at the demographic profile of income expectations, there is a clear divergence between those aged under and over 45 with younger consumers markedly more positive about income prospects than older consumers.

A small part of this could reflect the expectation of lower post-retirement incomes for some in middle-age but a likely stronger driver are contrasting expectations around the implications of a changing economic landscape for their earning potential.

Income expectations also varied markedly according to consumers ability to make end meet at present; those facing financial strains at present notably are more downbeat about future income prospects over the next five years.

The breakdown of positive and negative five-year income expectations also shows an increase in those expecting no change in incomes in the 2025 survey compared to the previous survey, with a drop in both positive and negative responses. At the margin, this could suggest consumers envisage a less divided (and divisive) outlook for income growth in Northern Ireland in coming years.

Section III; Consumer sentiment is similarly subdued across the Island of Ireland

Are consumers in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland facing altogether different worlds?

Longstanding structural difficulties in the Northern Ireland economy could be put forward as an argument why consumers there might be notably more pessimistic in relation to economic and financial developments than their counterparts in the Republic of Ireland.

However, the 2025 Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Survey doesn’t suggest that consumers in Northern Ireland are notably gloomier about the five-year outlook than their counterparts in the Republic of Ireland.

The sentiment survey is couched in terms of changes in economic circumstances (e.g., stronger or weaker) rather than absolute levels. In that regard, suggestions in the survey of an emerging and possibly underappreciated improvement in Northern Ireland economic performance may be captured in the survey.

It may be worthwhile drawing attention to the contrast between the current reality of strong recent positive momentum in the Northern Ireland economy and what might be deemed the ‘accepted wisdom’ as portrayed in a recent assertion in the Economist magazine ‘The north’s economy is poor: wages and GDP growth are below the United Kingdom’s average.’ (Irish willingness to join NATO could ease unification, Economist magazine, April 3^rd 2025).

In the same vein, a recent ESRI report (Economic Overview of Ireland and Northern Ireland, ESRI RESEARCH SERIES Number 203, April 2025) highlights longstanding structural issues that weigh on the level of economic activity, incomes and employment in Northern Ireland. However, the ESRI report, which largely focusses on data that do not cover the period since 2022, may not capture signs of improvement in momentum of late in the Northern Ireland economy.

We think some sense of improving momentum of late may be figuring in consumer thinking in the 2025 survey.
As the diagram below illustrates, economic activity has increased faster in Northern Ireland in recent years than in the UK as a whole and also grew somewhat faster than the Republic of Ireland in the year to Q4, 2024 although markedly outpaced over the past five years. (This comparison uses the Northern Ireland Composite Economic Activity Index, GDP and Modified Domestic Demand respectively as the measures most representative of the ‘macro’ conditions facing consumers in the respective areas).

Economic output in Northern Ireland rose 0.9% over the quarter to December 2024, an increase of 3.6% over the year while the increase in UK GDP over the quarter was just 0.1% and over the year was 1.4%. Modified Domestic Demand in the Republic of Ireland was 1.3% higher in the final quarter of 2024 than a year earlier.
Moreover, increases in economic activity in the Republic of Ireland in recent years have coincided with rapid population growth. From the perspective of the average consumer, it may be more appropriate to assess growth in per capita terms.

On this basis, average annual growth per person of 1.6% in the Republic of Ireland over the past five years has been quite similar to the 1.3% registered in Northern Ireland while both have been notably more robust than the average annual increase in GDP per person of just 0.1% for the UK as a whole between 2019 and 2024.

In the same vein, median weekly earnings were 35% higher in the final quarter of 2024 in Northern Ireland than five years earlier compared to a 25% cumulative increase in weekly average earnings in the Republic of Ireland over the same period.

While the 5-year increase in UK earnings is broadly similar to that in Northern Ireland, the latest data show a faster increase in Northern Ireland (+ 6.3% y/y in in February 2025) than for the UK as a whole (+5.0%).

At very least, these activity and earnings comparisons suggest that conditions for the typical Northern Ireland consumer have not worsened materially relative to conditions elsewhere of late.

Consistent with conditions of improving ‘domestic momentum’, the diagram also suggests that a pick-up in house prices in Northern Ireland may be capturing stronger demand conditions of late.

Consumer sentiment survey suggests strong similarities in consumer thinking

The five-year outlook for consumer sentiment in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland suggests consumers across the island of Ireland now hold broadly similar views as to how the economic and financial conditions that matter to them will evolve between now and 2030.

In spite of some encouraging domestic developments in recent years, it is not at all surprising that sentiment on the outlook for activity and employment is subdued across the island of Ireland.

This is consistent with recent readings from consumer surveys across most parts of the world, as an increasingly uncertain and threatening trading environment has emerged of late. The small scale and outward focus of much economic activity on this island would be expected to weigh heavily on consumer confidence as a result. In addition, longstanding structural problems, such as housing, remain key concerns for consumers as does the risk of continuing pressure on living costs.

At the margin, the balance of responses on the outlook for jobs is somewhat less negative from consumers in the Republic of Ireland than from consumers in Northern Ireland. This likely reflects the exceptional job performance of the Republic in recent years (At the end of 2024, numbers at work were 37% higher in the Republic than a decade earlier compared to a 10% increase in Northern Ireland which, in turn, was slightly faster than the 9% increase for the UK as a whole).

However, consumers in the Republic are more negative than their counterparts in Northern Ireland on the five-year outlook for consumer prices in spite of the fact that inflation in the Republic of Ireland has run markedly lower than in the UK on a one-year, thee-year or five-year basis.

This might suggest that the cost-of-living shock has had a greater ‘scarring’ effect on consumers in the Republic. One might speculate that this is because it represented a more marked pull-back from a previous path of rising living standards.

Consumers across the island of Ireland share a widely held view that house prices are set to rise further in the years ahead. Again, this would seem to reflect a common sense that the current momentum in property prices will be maintained because of a continuing shortfall in supply relative to demand, even in the face of an expected cooling in economic conditions between now and 2030.

Encouragingly, consumers in the Republic of Ireland and in Northern Ireland both expect that, on balance, household incomes will be stronger in 2030 than today. However, in both economies, there are notable variations in household thinking that suggest that, across the spectrum of households, expectations are very mixed as to whether the future will be better or worse in terms of living standards.

In light of the emerging geopolitical uncertainties and the recent cost-of-living crisis, it is not surprising that thinking on future income prospects varies widely. However, the more negative expectations among those currently facing difficulties making ends meet emphasises the need for domestic policymaking to encourage broadly inclusive economic growth.

The Credit Union Irish Consumer Sentiment Survey is a monthly survey of a nationally representative sample of 1,000 adults. The Northern Ireland Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Survey is a quarterly survey of a representative sample of 350 adults. Core Research undertake the survey administration and data collection for both surveys. This tranche of the two surveys was live between the 6th and 18th February 2025

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