Cautious recovery in consumer sentiment continues in June

Posted on: 01 Jul 2026

• Irish consumer confidence increases for a second month in June

• Easing in global tensions and energy prices support sentiment

• Job fears the only poorer element of June survey reading

• Irish consumer confidence less damaged in recent months than elsewhere.. 

• ….But sentiment still below pre-Iran war levels as uncertainty and pressures on household finances persist

 Special survey question focusses on planned holiday spending;

• Variation in holiday spending plans underscores differences in household financial circumstances, with one in four consumers planning to increase holiday spending and one in five unable to afford a holiday

• Under 35’s more likely to increase holiday spend than older consumers reflecting differences in discretionary spending power and priorities

• Two out of three consumers with known destinations plan to holiday abroad rather than in Ireland

• Better weather the key reason given for opting to holiday abroad followed by perceived better value

 
Speaking on the release of the June sentiment data and analysis, David Malone, CEO of the Irish League of Credit Unions noted; “The June survey results are encouraging in that they hint that Irish consumers are seeing some slight easing in financial pressures of late. However, as the special question reminds us, holidays can be a very expensive time of the year. Whether the financial challenges they face are planned or unpredicted, members can always rely on the support of their local credit union.’’        
 
 

Summary

Irish consumer sentiment improved for the second month in a row in June having fallen materially through March and April.

Sharp swings in consumer confidence in Ireland and elsewhere over the past few months were largely driven by changing perceptions as to the immediate impact of the war on Iran on households’ energy bills and the longer-term threats it posed to economic activity, jobs and spending power.

Although concerns have eased somewhat of late, there is still significant uncertainty about the delivery of a lasting peace deal in the middle east while Irish retail oil prices remain somewhat higher than before the conflict began.

For these reasons, the June Irish consumer sentiment reading, while clearly pointing to an easing in concerns and slightly less threatening cost pressures of late, is still lower than at the start of the year. As a result, the sentiment survey currently signals a concerned and, in many instances, cash-constrained Irish consumer.   
 

Section I; Sentiment survey signals consumer concerns ease further in June

As the table below indicates, the Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Survey (in partnership with Core Research) shows an increase to 62.2 in June from 59.4 in May. The cumulative 9-point increase over the past two months has reversed three quarters of the 12-point drop recorded over the previous two months which saw the index tumble to 53.3 in April from 65.2 in February.
 

 
The continuing if partial recovery in consumer confidence from the forty-month low seen in the April 2026 survey still leaves the sentiment index well below the long-term survey average of 83.2, signalling the mood of Irish consumers is nervous and broadly negative at present.

That said, the June 2026 reading of 62.2 is effectively unchanged from the 62.5 figure for June 2025 and is also fractionally above the 60.5 average of the past twelve months, implying that the environment facing

Irish consumers in mid-2026 is not markedly tougher now than previously.
 

Consumers elsewhere a little less negative but still nervous

June also saw modest recoveries in consumer sentiment in the US and the Euro area while UK consumer confidence remained unchanged. In each instance, the June readings remain clearly below their long-term averages, suggesting that common concerns weigh on the mood of consumers in most countries at present.

Although recent developments in consumer sentiment in different regions likely reflected a range of international and domestic factors, changes in motor fuel prices and expectations around future energy costs likely played a key role in less anxious consumer thinking in many countries in recent months.

In this context, it should be noted that US consumer sentiment saw a larger improvement in sentiment between May and June than elsewhere while retail gasoline prices in the US saw a bigger fall than in the Euro area and although diesel prices dropped in the UK, unleaded petrol prices rose slightly.

While Euro area fuel prices fell further than in Ireland between May and June, our sense is that clear signals of further support to come in the October Budget underpinned a stronger uptick in Irish consumer sentiment than seen in the Euro area in June.

In a similar vein, between February and June, Irish consumer sentiment saw less of a deterioration than similar survey metrics for the US, Euro area or UK while motor fuel costs here showed a notably smaller increase than elsewhere through that period.
 

Oil’s well?

It would be wrong to suggest that energy prices are always and everywhere the dominant influence on consumer sentiment. However, given the importance of fuel bills in consumer outlays, their very visible nature, their volatility in recent years and the association of that volatility with major global shocks, it is scarcely surprising that consumer sentiment in Ireland and elsewhere has been materially affected by major movements in energy prices. 

As the diagram below illustrates, fluctuations in Irish consumer sentiment have been closely and negatively associated with changes in energy costs in recent years. Indeed, a correlation coefficient of -0.76 over the past five years underlines the extent to which rising energy prices are associated with falling consumer sentiment (and vice versa).

The sensitivity of Irish consumers to energy costs has important implications for how the Government handles the phasing out of temporary fuel tax cuts and, much more substantially, to the choice and communication of the policy instruments to drive the broader path to decarbonization. 
 

 

Job concerns increase in June

The improvement in Irish consumer sentiment in June was broadly based with four of the five main elements of the sentiment index posting month-on-month gains.

‘Macro’ elements of the survey were mixed with a small increase in thinking about the general economic outlook, likely based on some easing in global geopolitical tensions as well as broadly positive domestic activity data and forecasts, more than offset by renewed worries on the jobs front.

The downgrade of the outlook for jobs was likely influenced by the late-May announcement that Meta would cut its Irish workforce by nearly 20 per cent. The Irish layoffs are roughly double the scale of the planned reduction in Meta’s global headcount. Alongside survey data suggesting a drop in planned hiring and an ongoing focus on the threat to jobs from AI, it is scarcely surprising that Irish consumers have become more negative about the jobs market of late.   
 

Household finance fears ease but Central Bank estimates emphasise hit to spending power is large and lasting

The improvement in Irish Consumer Sentiment in June was primarily driven by an easing in concerns around household finances although it should be emphasised that the balance of thinking in relation to household financial circumstances remained overwhelmingly negative in June.

In this respect, the mood of Irish consumers mirrors the thinking of the Central Bank whose latest quarterly bulletin envisages household disposable income falling in ‘real’ or inflation-adjusted terms in both 2025 and 2026. Indeed, the Central Bank analysis suggests the average Irish household will be about 4.5% worse off in 'real' terms in 2026 than it was five years ago, with declines in spending power in each of four of the past five years. (The bulletin was released late during the June survey period but with little if any media focus on this particular aspect.)

So, the Central Bank's current estimates effectively underscore the longstanding message message of the  sentiment survey-  that many Irish consumers are experiencing a a large and long-lasting period of pressure their living standards. 

However, most domestic economic commentary has tended to underplay the importance of such developments and focussed instead on a healthy trend in aggregate consumer spending driven by a notably increased number of consumers and wide variations in their financial circumstances. In turn, this risks underestimating the significant economic and social consequences of unbalanced changes in consumers circumstances.  

On the positive side, the June survey period did see official data showing inflation was marginally lower in May (+3.6%) than in April (+3.7%). This was largely because of Irish Government measures to reduce taxes temporarily on motor fuels.  A clear further easing in food price inflation from 2.1% in April to 1.2% in May, its slowest increase since December 2021 also helped.

The June survey period saw a number of contrasting developments on the inflation front that may be important for consumer sentiment and spending in the months ahead.

First of all, with global oil prices easing, the current inflation bout is unlikely to be anywhere near as severe as that seen in 2022 and 2023. However, still material price pressures at present come on top of the previous inflation shock. The five-year increase in consumer prices is now running at a cumulative 24%. Five years ago, the cumulative increase in prices was just 2.7%. The fallout from a prolonged period of persistent price increases is evident in the continuing trend rise in households in arrears on their energy bills.

Second, the fact that the improvement in sentiment likely reflects Government energy measures emphasises that the right policy can cushion the price blow to consumers. In this context, the repeated message from senior Government ministers through the June survey period that the upcoming Budget would focus heavily on easing the burden of both income tax and childcare costs may have hit home with consumers, as the improvement in consumer thinking around household finance prospects for the next twelve months improved more than twice as much views on the past twelve months.

Importantly, the balance of consumer thinking on household finances remains negative and the June survey saw spending plans improve altogether more modestly than other personal finances components of the survey.

This caution is entirely rational, particularly given ongoing pressure on household spending power. Looking forward, price pressures are likely to build further, with knock-on price increases across a wide number of goods and services from the recent surge in global energy prices.  Increases in input and transport costs look set to boost food prices later in the year while the threat of scarcer energy supplies will weigh on the cost of heating and lighting homes as winter approaches.
 

Section II; Irish consumers holiday spending still curtailed cost of living pressures persist

 As is usual, the questionnaire for the June reading of the Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Survey (in partnership with Core Research) contained special questions intended to shed light on current consumer thinking on specific topics. This month’s special question repeated a focus of recent years and examined on Irish consumers’ summer holiday spending plans. 


Headline results in the 2026 survey on holiday spending plans, shown in diagram 2 above, are very similar to those of 2025 and only modestly different to those of earlier years. In broad terms, the 2026 survey results suggest no marked change in the ‘macro’ climate in Ireland of late. Though somewhat improved from the results seen in 2023 when cost of living pressures were building dramatically, there has been no pronounced trend strengthening in planned holiday spending through 2025 and 2026.

In that sense, these results are entirely consistent with the tone of the main sentiment survey for June 2026, in that they suggest the cumulative increase in living costs through recent years coupled with current uncertainty is weighing materially on the feelings and the finances of Irish consumers.

If the holiday spend segment doesn’t suggest any marked change in overall macro conditions, it does tend to underscore other sentiment survey findings in relation to marked differences in financial circumstances across the spectrum of Irish consumers. These responses mirror other recent sentiment survey results that signal continuing evidence of a three-tier consumer economy.

One in two Irish consumers say they will spend the same or more on holidays than they did last year, one in six under one in four say they will cut back and about one in five say they can’t afford holidays this year. (Arguably financial uncertainty may  also be an issue for many of those consumers who say they are not sure about their holiday plans.). These shares broadly match the split of Irish consumers into ‘the comfortable’, ‘the coping’ and ‘those clinging-on’ that we identified in the May special question on the capacity of households to handle a financial emergency.

Of the 25% of consumers who say they will spend more on their main holiday this year, just over half plan to increase their spending by more than 10%. Similarly, of the 16% who plan to cut back, more than half say the reduction will be greater than 10%. These particular results suggest material numbers of consumers plan major shifts in their holiday spending this year. In some instances, this likely reflects pronounced changes in their household financial circumstances. In other cases, the spending shift may be driven by major life events. These variations remind us that not all consumer behaviour mechanically follows the fortunes of the macroeconomy.    
 

Holiday spending power varies widely

These results also show marked demographic differences in the capacity to go on holiday and the capacity to increase their holiday spending.

Males are about 50% more likely to say they plan to increase spending on their main holiday than females in 2026. Some element of this could be down to differences in spending priorities but the fact that females are also more than 50% more likely than males to say that they can’t afford a holiday this year suggests that differences in spending power are the key driver.

In the same vein, those facing difficulty making ends meet are about 80% less likely to say they plan to increase holiday spend this year than those without difficulty in this regard but those with current financial pressures are also about 75% more likely to say they will be unable to afford a holiday this year.  As might be expected, the incidence of increased holiday spending plans tends to be positively correlated with household income.   

Those aged under 35 are two-thirds more likely than older consumers to say they plan to increase their holiday spend this year. This younger cohort are also about one third less likely to say they can’t afford a holiday. Some part of this age-related variation is undoubtedly due to different spending priorities.

Some element is also likely attributable to differences in discretionary spending power. In the main survey those aged under 35 see some prospect of an increase in their household finances in contrast to notably more negative expectations among older consumers. 

In the June 2026 special survey on holiday spending plans, we also asked whether consumers planned to holiday in Ireland or abroad. The results shown in diagram 3 below suggest that two-in-three of those who plan to take a holiday and have decided on destination say they will go abroad while the remaining one in three say they will holiday in Ireland.


Those who say they face difficulties making ends meet, but still plan to take a holiday, are two thirds more likely than others to say they will holiday in Ireland.
Perhaps surprisingly the share of under 35’s who plan to holiday in Ireland is above the survey average. This is partly driven by greater certainty on holiday destination among this group as the share of under 35’s planning to go abroad is close to the overall survey average.

Conversely, greater than average numbers of those aged over 55 who plan to take a holiday say they have yet to decide on destination but of those who have, the share of older consumers planning to holiday abroad is somewhat above the survey average.

Faraway fields are sunnier?

The June 2026 sentiment survey also asked those consumers who plan to holiday abroad rather than in Ireland what factors influenced that decision. The results shown in diagram 4 below allow for more than one response to be given to this question. 
 


Perhaps ironically, given the weather in Ireland and elsewhere in late June (the survey completed on June 23 just before a dramatic improvement in the weather took hold but after a relatively wet early part of the month), better weather was the most popular reason given for holidaying abroad, figuring in about one third more responses than the next most significant response, better overall value.

Weather was cited more frequently than average in responses from those aged over 45, those with no difficulty making ends meet and those on higher incomes. Better value tended to feature most prominently in responses from males rather than females and in those aged over 45 relative to younger consumers. There was no marked variation based on financial circumstances. Cultural differences featured more prominently among responses from those aged under 35 and from those not indicating any difficulty making ends meet at present.

Are Irish tourism prices really that problematic?

While the June survey period saw frequent references to Ireland’s relatively high living costs and the survey special questions indicate perceived better value abroad, the trend of late in the main is towards a narrower rather than a wider differential.

The latest CSO inflation data for May also show Irish holiday accommodation charges down fractionally in the past year while package holidays have risen by 3.3% and airfares by 14%. 

In the same vein, Eurostat data show holiday accommodation prices in Ireland have risen a cumulative 61% in the ten years to May 2026, well ahead of the increase in France (+39%) but below the increases seen in Greece (+67%), Croatia (+75%), Portugal (+82%) or Spain (+87%). While the same source show that Irish restaurant prices have risen somewhat faster than average, the trend in Irish tourism prices may be less unfavourable than the current thinking of Irish consumers might imply.

The Credit Union Irish Consumer Sentiment Survey is a monthly survey of a nationally representative sample of 1,000 adults. Since May 2019, Core Research have undertaken the survey administration and data collection for the Survey. This month’s survey was live between the 3^rd and 23^rd June 2026