Consumer Confidence Improves but Cost-of-Living Pressures Persist
Posted on: 28 Nov 2025
- Sentiment recovers just over half of the drop in October
- Jobs outlook and spending plans see solid gains
- Worries around household finances increase further
- No sign of world cup-related bounce in Irish consumers mood
- Special Question looks at Christmas spending power and spending plans
- 52% of Irish consumers say they have less money to Spend on Christmas ’25 than a year ago
- Only 9% say they have more spending power this year
- 53% of Irish consumers plan to cut back on Christmas entertainment and 50% to cut back on presents this year
- 42% of consumers will fund their Christmas spend through their income, down from 47% a year ago
- Numbers relying on savings up but so too are numbers borrowing or relying on help from family and friends
We estimate Christmas cost inflation will be higher this year than in 2024 but clearly lower than 2022 or 2023
Speaking on the release of the November data and analysis, David Malone, CEO of the Irish League of Credit Unions noted; “The November sentiment survey again highlights continuing cost-of-living pressures weighing on Irish consumers. With the run-up to Christmas proving a challenging time for many families, it is important to emphasise that they can count on the guidance and support of their local credit union to help them make their Christmas manageable rather than overwhelming.”
Summary
Irish consumer sentiment improved slightly in November as reduced nervousness about the economic outlook and a seasonal uptick in spending plans more than outweighed continuing concerns around household finances.
The upgrade to the economic outlook meant that Irish consumer sentiment showed an improvement in contrast to declines in consumer confidence in the US and UK and a largely unchanged reading across the Euro area in November.
While ‘macro’ gloom has eased modestly of late, Irish consumers are still generally negative about the economic outlook. However, the main factor weighing on the mood of Irish consumers of late is a strong sense of continuing pressure on household spending power.
Worries about rising prices and restricted buying power mean that the special question in the November survey found that roughly half of Irish consumers say they have less to spend this Christmas than a year ago.
As a result, compared to their 2024 outlay, more than six times as many Irish consumers plan to spend less on Christmas entertainment than to spend more while more than three times as many plan to cut back on presents as plan to spend more.
The most common source through which Christmas spending is funded continues to be household income but the share of consumers financing Christmas this way is lower than in 2024.
A sense of divergent financial circumstances is suggested by increases in the share of consumers funding Christmas spending from savings alongside an increase in borrowing and reliance on financial support from family and friends.
A rough estimate of key Christmas costs suggests that ‘Christmas inflation’ will be higher this year than last, largely because of an acceleration in food prices but the cost of Christmas is unlikely to increase at anything like the pace seen in 2022 and 2023.
Section I; November sentiment survey suggests slightly reduced economic worries, but household finances remain a pressure point
As the table below indicates, the Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Survey (in partnership with Core Research) shows an index reading of 61.0 in November, up modestly from 59.9 in October but slightly down from 61.7 in September.
The November reading is only slightly below the 2025 year-to-date average of 63.7, but some distance below the 74.1 level of November 2024 and even further below the near 30-year survey average of 83.7. This suggests that 2025 has been a worrisome year for Irish consumers.
Survey finds no tidings of comfort and Troy.
We carried out a very rough analysis to assess whether the mood of the country improved in the wake of the Republic of Ireland’s 2-0 victory over Portugal by comparing pre and post November 13th survey responses.
While the sample size was reduced and demographic mix varied, it would appear that consumer sentiment did not get any material improvement from the improvement in the fortunes of the Irish football team.
In fact, post-November 13th responses were somewhat weaker than those recorded earlier in the month. Of course, that could reflect the impact of higher inflation data and a focus on Ireland’s continuing economic pressures in the wake of the resignation announcement by the Minister for Finance.
However, a football-focussed economist might rationalise a weaker reading by pointing to the prospect of greater spending abroad, more time away from work and increased pressure on many households’ finances should Ireland qualify for the 2026 world cup in the US.
More significantly, Irish sporting history is littered with painful lessons of excessive expectations. So, it is not altogether surprising that a couple of exceptional performances and results have not translated into a markedly more upbeat mood among Irish consumers.
For all that, world cup qualification appears to offer a better prospect of a widespread ‘feelgood’ factor in 2026 than most other prospective developments do at present.
A gloomy November for consumers elsewhere
In contrast to the slight uplift in Irish consumer sentiment in November, the comparable US measure showed a fractional decline which that survey’s compilers attribute to ‘high prices and weakening incomes’.
UK consumer confidence showed an unsurprising deterioration as concerns around the economy and household finances built ahead of what was expected to be a very tough Budget announcement on November 26th.
A broadly flat Euro area consumer confidence reading at subdued levels suggested a still nervous European consumer grappling with mixed economic news and a very uncertain geopolitical backdrop.
Irish consumers less nervous about the economy but more negative about their household finances as Christmas boosts spending plans
The details of the Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Survey (in partnership with Core Research) for November were mixed with three of the main elements up relative to October and the remaining two down.
As was the case in October, there was a notably more positive trend in the ‘macro’ elements than in consumers assessment of their own financial circumstances.
While consumers remain overwhelmingly negative about the twelve-month outlook for the Irish economy, concerns eased fractionally in November. New IMF forecasts, published as the October survey concluded, now envisage a less severe immediate impact from US tariffs than previously thought. In addition, the IMF forecasts also projected that Irish GDP growth in 2025 would be the fastest among advanced economies by some significant distance.
Consumer thinking on the labour market improved modestly in November, but again it remains largely negative. October data, published in early November, indicated a slight drop in the unemployment rate from the previous month while there were also a number of new job announcements in the technology and construction sectors.
The limited improvement in ‘macro’ elements of the survey over recent months seems to reflect a gradual if erratic easing in concerns around the near-term impact of US tariffs on the Irish economy. Although the survey still suggests that Irish consumers are acutely aware of substantial downside risks to activity and employment, those risks have not crystallised in the manner feared or widely predicted in the Spring.
If Irish consumers have avoided the ‘blowout’ impact of a tariff war, they continue to suffer a damaging slow puncture from ever-increasing living costs. Reflecting this, views on personal finances have suffered a larger drop over the past twelve months than ‘macro’ views notwithstanding the shock of threats to trade.
Views on household finances slipped further in November, albeit marginally. The sense of an enduring issue in relation to living costs might be gleaned from a similar drop in consumers’ assessments of their financial situation over the past twelve months and the next twelve months.
October inflation data, released in mid-November, suggested that cost-of-living pressures are continuing to pick up rather than peter out. The headline inflation rate of 2.9% was the highest since March 2024 and contrasted sharply and unfavourably with the October 2024 reading of just 0.7%. Elevated food price inflation and a renewed rise in energy costs were unwelcome reminders of the nature and scale of pressures on many families’ finances.
While most ‘macro’ releases point to a robust Irish economy and resilient consumer spending, recent energy arrears data showing 187k domestic customers more than 90 days in arrears on electricity bills and just under 154k domestic customers more than 90 days in arrears on their gas bills emphasise the degree of financial difficulty significant numbers of Irish consumers currently face.
In spite of the generally glum tone of the current reading of the sentiment survey and the particular weakness in those areas related to household finances, November saw a clear improvement in spending plans to the strongest level in eight months.
Our sense is that this uplift is largely seasonal in nature and reflects the imminent arrival of ‘Black Friday’ price discounting as well as a marked upswing in Christmas-related advertising of late.
We should also note that the improvement in spending plans between October and November is not inconsistent with the somewhat downbeat tone of responses to the special questions on Christmas spending in Section II below.
While there has been a month-on-month improvement, the buying climate in November 2025 is somewhat weaker than that reported for November 2024. Moreover, to the extent that cost pressures continue, taking advantage of discounted prices in ‘black Friday’ sales becomes even more important, thereby underpinning November 2025 spending plans.
Section II; Dreaming of a tight Christmas?
As usual, the Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Survey (in partnership with Core Research) included a supplementary question on topics of current interest.
As in each of the previous five years, consumers were asked about their Christmas spending power and plans. A comparison of the responses to this question for the years 2020 to 2025 is given in the diagram below.
As the graph above shows, roughly half of Irish consumers (52%) say they have less money to spend on Christmas in 2025 than they had a year ago. This is up, albeit modestly, on the 47% of consumers who said their Christmas spending power had fallen in 2024.
A clear sense that cost-of-living pressures remain broadly based is suggested by the fact that the number of consumers who say they have less money to spend on Christmas 2025 spend is nearly six times as many as the number with more money to spend.
As a result, the 2025 survey also finds an increase in the number of consumers who say they will cut back spending on Christmas entertainment, to 53% of those surveyed compared to 50% in 2024, and also on Christmas presents, to 50% from 46%.
While declines in Christmas spending power and spending plans in the 2025 survey are not nearly as pronounced as those seen in 2022 and 2023 when cost-of-living pressures increased dramatically, the further increase in financial strains indicated in these results should be seen as suggesting that cost-of-living difficulties remain a large and lasting issue for significant numbers of Irish households.
The increase in the share of consumers with less scope for Christmas spending, as well as the fractional drop in the share of those with more money available this year compared to 2024, suggests that Christmas 2025 will be more difficult for many Irish consumers.
This, in turn, likely reflects to a significant degree the experience of a marked reduction in fiscal support. The recent Budget resulted in a notable change in the scale and timing of financial assistance measures that could be expected to weigh on Christmas spending plans this year.
The results overall suggest fairly broadly based trends in relation to Christmas spending power but there were some differences in degree across demographic groups. Consumers outside Dublin and females were more likely to say they had less money to spend on Christmas ’25 than others.
Christmas spending power declined consistently with age up to 55 but improved thereafter with those aged over 65 notably less likely to report reduced spending capacity than other groups. Increased scope for Christmas spending was most common among those aged under 35 and declined steadily thereafter but recovered to slightly above average among the over 65’s.
Not surprisingly, Christmas spending capacity increased as the income profile of consumers rose and those reporting difficulty making ends meet were two and a half times as likely to say they have less money to spend on Christmas as those who do not face such difficulties. Consistent with this, those currently making ends meet with ease were nearly three times as likely to say they have more Christmas spending power this year as those with difficulties in this regard.
How Christmas is funded now varies even more widely
With financial strains continuing to be an issue for many households, it may be instructive to explore how Irish consumers plan to finance their Christmas spending. As in 2022 and 2023, we asked consumers how they would pay for their additional seasonal spending. The responses are shown in the diagram below.
As the diagram indicates, there are some modest but potentially meaningful changes in the ways Irish consumers expect to fund their Christmas spend in 2025 compared to previous years.
Household income remains the most common source of funding for Christmas spending but the 2025 survey found a drop in those financing their Christmas from current income to 42% of consumers from 47% in 2023. This could be consistent with continuing pressure on living costs that has exhausted some household’s financial capacity.
Compensating for the drop in the share of consumers funding their Christmas from income were increases in other financing sources that may suggest notably divergent financial circumstances across the spectrum of Irish households. While Christmas looks set to be a time of wonder for some, for others it will be a time of worry.
On one side, there was a pick-up in those using savings to 37% from 34%, suggesting improving financial capacity of late for some households. In contrast, a rise in those borrowing to finance their Christmas to 9% from 7% as well as an increase to 5% from 3% in those drawing on the financial support of family and friends hints at more strained household finances for a non-negligible group of Irish consumers. This group likely also includes many of the 9% of consumers who said they don’t know how they will finance their Christmas spending.
When it comes to assessing which consumers fund their Christmas spend in what manner, significant numbers of all age and income groups fall into every funding type. That said, there are some clear differences in the demographic patterns in these results.
The proportion of consumers funding their Christmas spend from income tends to be higher among those aged 35 to 44 and this group also rely less on savings. Along with those aged from 45 to 65, these groups are also more inclined to borrow for Christmas than other age groups. These results suggest financial circumstances vary widely within specific age brackets.
Those citing difficulty making ends meet at present are more than 5 times as likely to borrow as those making ends meet with ease. Those facing financial strain are also more than twice as likely to borrow from family and friends. Those who say they are having difficulty making ends meet are also three times more likely to say they do not know how they will fund Christmas spend this year.
The special questions asked in the November sentiment survey suggest that roughly half of Irish consumers feel their Christmas spending power is less than last year while fewer than one-in-ten think it has improved. This suggests a cautious rather than a carefree Christmas spend for many households this year.
Many of the standard macro indicators suggest that, in the aggregate, Irish household incomes have been rising faster than prices of late. Given the stepdown in fiscal supports in Budget ’26 and the pick-up in price inflation in key areas of late, it may be that many consumers face into Christmas 2025 under significant financial strain.
Christmas cost inflation picking up again
Christmas spending power and spending priorities vary widely from household to household and the relative importance of various items in the shopping basket changes accordingly. Recognising that limitation, we again repeated a purely illustrative exercise mapping out what various Christmas-focussed items might cost using October consumer price data from the Central Statistics Office.
It should be noted that this exercise is based on official price data and our own very rough assumptions about the relative importance of key elements in Christmas outlays rather than the consumer sentiment survey itself. It should also be pointed out that Christmas spend notably omits any outlay on energy costs that may be boosted by increased time at home and/or travel.
As the table below suggests, a renewed pick-up in food price inflation together with a notable turnaround in clothing prices are the key drivers of a somewhat faster rate of ‘Christmas costs’ inflation in 2025 than in 2024.
As the table illustrates, ‘Christmas inflation’ in Ireland in 2025 seems set to be higher than in 2024 but it remains much lower than in 2022 or 2023. However, it is also the case that the absolute level of Christmas-related costs is some 15.7% higher than in 2020 reflecting the cumulative increase in costs over recent years. So, It would not be entirely surprising that many Irish consumers see Christmas in terms of financial strain rather than family celebration.
The Credit Union Irish Consumer Sentiment Survey is a monthly survey of a nationally representative sample of 1,000 adults. Since May 2019, Core Research have undertaken the survey administration and data collection for the Survey. This tranche of the survey was live between the 6th and 18th November 2025.