Irish consumer confidence continues to edge higher in February

Posted on: 25 Feb 2026

Slight uptick puts sentiment at best level since March ‘25
Job and economy worries ease but mood still gloomy
Spending plans improve, possibly on late sale discounts
Special questions focus on five-year outlook of consumers
- Irish economy expected to weaken rather than strengthen
- Views mixed as to whether household incomes rise or fall
- Two in three consumers see inflation higher in five years’ time, just one in ten expect lower inflation
- Eight times as many Irish consumers think house prices will be higher in five years’ time as think they will be lower

Speaking on the release of the February 2026 data and analysis, David Malone, CEO of the Irish League of Credit Unions noted; "The continuing if small improvement in Irish consumer confidence in February is encouraging. While the mood of consumers is still cautious, it is less negative of late, pointing to the possibility of a brighter year ahead".

Summary

While there is little to suggest that they are singing in the rain, Irish consumer sentiment did improve marginally for the fourth month in a row in February. The current reading remains relatively low and points to a continuing lack of confidence on the part of a nervous and, in many instances, cash-constrained Irish consumer. However, there is also a slight hint in these data that worries about economic and financial developments may be easing slightly.

Although gains in Irish consumer sentiment in recent months have been relatively limited, they have proven sufficient to bring the Irish consumer sentiment index to an eleven-month high in February.
The sequence of small increases in sentiment of late hints that many consumers may sense that the worst may be over or at very least that the future is now not as threatening as had been feared through much of 2025.

The resilience of the Irish economy through the past twelve months, coupled with some limited easing in inflation of late, may suggest to Irish consumers that the year ahead while still likely to be challenging may not be quite as negative as had been expected.

Although consumers were marginally less nervous about their circumstances in early 2026, responses to special questions in the February sentiment survey suggested they are a little more negative about the five-year outlook than they were twelve months ago. On balance, consumers think the Irish economy and household incomes will be weaker in five years time but inflation and house prices are expected to be stronger.

Section I; Sentiment survey suggests Irish consumers feeling less fear in early 2026

As the table below indicates, the Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Survey (in partnership with Core Research) shows an index reading of 65.2 in February 2026, up slightly on the 64.7 figure recorded in January 2026, but still materially weaker than the February 2025 reading of 74.8.

While the most recent reading remains some significant distance below the thirty-year survey average of 83.5, it is modestly higher than the twelve-month average of 63.6 for 2025 and approaching the latest five-year average of 66.5. As a result, the February reading seems consistent with a tentative and still limited easing in consumer negativity.

The month-on-month improvement in Irish consumer confidence in February 2026 also goes against a pronounced tendency for a pullback in sentiment readings in February (8 of the previous 10 years saw monthly declines).
While the sentiment survey focusses on economic and financial circumstances rather than climatic conditions, it is nonetheless worth noting this month’s gain came against a backdrop of exceptionally wet and wearing weather conditions in Ireland throughout the survey period.

A small step-up rather than a Spring in many countries’ consumer confidence readings for February

The improvement in Irish consumer sentiment in February coincided with gains in similar measures for the US and the Euro area. In the US consumer sentiment improved fractionally but that was sufficient to bring the sentiment index to a six-month high.

The US report’s authors emphasise that there was no material change in sentiment overall this month as an improvement in the mood of consumers with large stock portfolios broadly offset a decline among less wealthy lower-income households.

US consumer sentiment also seems to have benefitted from an easing in concerns around household finances, which we might speculate reflects lower than feared US inflation of late. However, US consumers were also more concerned about business conditions in February amid continuing talk of a poorer economic outlook.
Euro area consumer confidence also improved fractionally in February, an outturn that may have been assisted by better-than-expected economic growth data as well as lower inflation. An easing in geopolitical tensions centred on Greenland could also have bolstered sentiment.

‘Macro’ comforts and ‘micro’ concerns for Irish consumers in February

Three of the five components of the Irish consumer sentiment index registered month-on-month increases in February while the other two declined.
Repeating the gains seen in January, both ‘macro’ elements of the sentiment index recorded further modest increases in February. Thinking on the general economic outlook may have been supported by the release of preliminary GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2025 during the survey period.

In stark contrast to warnings about the damaging impact US tariffs could have on Irish growth prospects for 2025, these data suggested Irish GDP growth for the full year was an outsized 12.6%, far and away the fastest among advanced economies and exceeded only by Libya and South Sudan in the near 200 countries covered by the International Monetary Fund’s world economic outlook.

The 2025 growth outturn prompted some upgrades to predictions for 2026 and encouraging exchequer returns data as well as the announcement that Novo Nordisk would produce its weight loss pill in Ireland for markets outside the US likely also assisted sentiment in this regard too. So too might the easing in geopolitical tensions around US president Trump’s interest in Greenland.

In these circumstances, it is not surprising that consumers scaled back their pessimism about the twelve-month outlook for the Irish economy somewhat in February. That said, it should be emphasised that the change was marginal and the balance of consumer thinking on the Irish economy remains strongly of the view that the Irish economy will weaken rather than strengthen in the year ahead.
Irish consumer thinking on the outlook for jobs also improved further in February although again it should be noted that consumer thinking is clearly weighted towards a weaker jobs market through 2026.
The survey period saw unemployment unchanged in January from December at 4.7% but there was also a notable downward revision to the December reading from an initially reported 5% figure. A recovery in administrative employee data for December also suggested a more resilient if still cooling jobs market.
Although there were a number of layoff announcements through the survey period (including those at Musgrave and Amazon), these were outweighed by somewhat larger new job announcements (including those at Centra and at Origina, the IT services company).

Cost concerns continue to weigh on Irish consumers

Consumers were more negative about their household finances in February than in January. While official data show inflation eased marginally in January (to 2.7% from 2.8% in December), this was largely due to lower energy costs and the February sentiment survey period saw a rebound in motor and home heating fuel prices (according to EU weekly energy price data).

In addition, many employees saw their January pay packets shrink reflecting the start of pension auto-enrolment. With Christmas credit card bills also falling due of late, it is not at all surprising that Irish consumers were gloomier about their household finances in January.

However, somewhat surprisingly, there was a small improvement in the buying climate that might owe something to final price discounts in new year sales. It could also be speculated that outdoor activity-curbing weather also prompted some increased propensity to shop.

Whatever the reason for the divergence in February, it is likely that consumer thinking on household finances and spending plans will return to more consistent settings in the months ahead. The unknown element is whether easing inflation, constrained household income growth or a broader change in the ‘macro’ outlook prove decisive in prompting spending to strengthen or soften from its recent trend.

Section II; How do Irish consumers feel about their longer term economic and financial prospects in early 2026?

As usual, the February reading of the Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Survey (in partnership with Core Research) contained a number of special questions intended to shed light on current consumer thinking on particular topics.

This month, we again asked consumers to take a look further into the future to assess longer term prospects for the Irish economy and their own financial circumstances. This is the fifth consecutive year we asked this question. At a time when current conditions remain subject to considerable uncertainty, these results give a sense as to whether Irish consumer thinking on their longer-term prospects is stable or shifting.

Irish economy seen notably slower but not slumping in five years’ time

Diagram 1 below compares consumer thinking on the longer-term fortunes of the Irish economy at the start of 2026 with their views through recent years when economic and financial conditions were buffeted by a range of developments.

Through the past five years, the near-term focus of consumers in Ireland and elsewhere has shifted across a sequence of negative shocks including Covid, the invasion of Ukraine, atrocities in the middle east, a surge in cost-of-living pressures and economic uncertainty around marked shifts in US policymaking. The evidence of the diagram below would suggest that consumers seem to think that these developments are expected to have large and lasting negative impacts on the Irish economy.

As diagram 1 indicates, there has been a persistent decline in the share of consumers expecting the Irish economy to be stronger in five years’ time and a similarly consistent if smaller increase in the share of consumers who expect it to be weaker.

As the diagram also indicates, from a position where, on balance, consumer thinking envisaged the Irish economy would be stronger in five years, the past two years have seen a shift into a negative balance of opinion on Ireland’s longer-term prospects.
The change in thinking in recent years has been amplified by initial expectations for a post-Covid bounce that contrast starkly with current judgements framed by deepening fractures in the global economic and geopolitical system.

It may also be the case that consumers responded to the tone of much of the commentary around both the Government’s medium-term plan and the longer-term analysis ‘Future Forty’ prepared by the Dept of Finance, both of which appeared in the latter stages of 2025.

Discussions around these documents tended to emphasise the prospect of a marked future slowdown with a much-increased risk of a slump on foot of a range of worsening structural developments.
Finally, it could be argued that the widely perceived lack of progress on problems affecting economic and social infrastructure, may be encouraging some element of ‘perma-gloom’ about the longer-term growth outlook among a significant cohort of Irish consumers.

For all these concerns, we would note that when taken in conjunction with consumer thinking on other aspects of the 5-year outlook discussed below, the picture that emerges is one in which Irish consumers may envisage weaker ‘macro’ conditions than at present but their assessment of the future seems more consistent with a slowdown rather than a slump.

For these varying reasons, it may be worth examining the demographic breakdown of responses to this question in the February 2026. The consumers who expect the Irish economy to be stronger in five years’ time were somewhat more likely to be from Dublin than elsewhere, were more likely to be male than female, and were more likely to indicate they were managing their finances at present without difficulty.
It is notable and perhaps at odds with some current narratives that positive expectations for the five-year outlook for the Irish economy were most likely to come from those aged between 25 and 34 while this response was least likely to come from those aged 45 to 54.

In contrast, negative medium-term assessments were more likely to come from those currently indicating difficulty making ends meet, and those aged between 35 and 44. The age group where negative responses were least prevalent was those aged under 25 followed by those aged 65 and over.

Mixed but marginally weaker views on outlook for household incomes in medium-term

As was the case in previous years, the February 2026 sentiment survey also asked consumers whether they thought their household income would be stronger or weaker than it is at present. The responses are presented in diagram 2 below.

As diagram 2 shows, it seems there is a three-speed Irish economy when it comes to how consumers see their household incomes evolving. Roughly equal amounts of consumers see their incomes being higher, lower and similar to today in five years’ time.

This breakdown is more negative than that seen in previous surveys. The February 2026 sentiment survey responses show fractionally more consumers negative than positive about prospects for their household finances, the first time there hasn’t been a positive balance in responses in the five years that this question was asked.

In light of the continuing pullback in the outlook for the Irish economy as a whole, it is not entirely surprising that consumers have become more cautious about their personal finances. Arguably of equal significance, consumers continue to be somewhat less negative about their household finances overall than they are about the broader economy.

One reason that consumers may be less negative about the longer-term outlook for their own financial circumstances is that some may feel that the economy will slow from an exceptional or exaggerated pace of growth at present.

Another reason for the less negative assessment of household finances is that it appears that many consumers envisage normal life cycle changes dominating economic cycle considerations.
In this context, responses on household income prospects are notably more positive among the under 35’s while they tend to be most negative among those aged 55 to 64. It should also be noted that responses are more positive from males than females, among those without difficulty making ends meet at present, those with higher incomes and Dublin-based consumers.

Consumers see cost-of-living strains lasting and larger

One factor that might be important in determining the outlook for household finances is the evolution of inflation. In circumstances where inflation in recent years has been notably higher than through the previous decade, it is notable, as diagram 3 below indicates, that most Irish consumers expect to see inflation running higher than at present in the medium term.

It is notable that there is far for more consensus among Irish consumers as to the longer-term outlook for inflation than in regard to broader economic or household income prospects where opinions are quite mixed.

As diagram 3 indicates, two in three Irish consumers (65%) expect inflation to be higher in five years’ time while just one in ten consumers (10%) see it being lower than at present.
The slight increase in ‘inflation pessimism’ between the 2025 and 2026 surveys suggests Irish consumers now see significant and sustained increases in their living costs as a persistent feature of the Irish economic and financial landscape.

We would emphasise that the survey should be interpreted as signaIling consumers broad impression of expected price developments rather than any specific future inflation rate. That said, it is worth noting that the inflation in early 2026 is already running some distance above that seen a year ago, which might suggest a clear worsening of inflation expectations (On official data, inflation in January 2026 was 2.7% compared to 1.9% in January 2025).

With current inflation, particularly in areas such as groceries defying previous economists’ predictions of a ‘transitory’ price bump, it may be that Irish consumers, like their counterparts elsewhere, are extrapolating current visibly troubling price trends into their future expectations for inflation.
The expectation that inflation would be higher in five years’ time was seen across all demographic groupings. However, there were some differences in the extent to which that view was held. The view that future inflation might be lower was seen somewhat more frequently than average among consumers aged 35 and under and less frequently among those aged over 55. However, there was a greater consistency across age groups in terms of the share of consumers who expect inflation to be higher in five years’ time. In fact, those aged over 65 were slightly less pessimistic than average.

Consumers currently having difficulty making ends meet were more likely to envisage future inflation being higher than those not facing this issue. In the same vein, the frequency of inflation concerns tended to diminish as incomes rose. This likely reflects differences in household spending patterns and probably also owes something to the particular price pressures in areas such as food and energy in recent experience.

Strong sense that house prices will continue to move higher

Again, as was the case in each of the past two years, the February reading of the Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Survey (in partnership with Core Research) also asked Irish consumers whether they felt Irish house prices would be higher or lower in five years’ time. Responses to this question are shown in Diagram 4 below.

As can be seen from Diagram 4, there is a very strong and growing consensus among consumers that Irish house prices will be higher rather than lower in five years’ time than they are today.
In the 2024 survey roughly 5 times as many consumers thought Irish house prices would be higher in five years’ time as thought they would be lower (68%v14%). A year ago the ratio was 6 times (71% v 11%). The February 2026 sentiment survey suggests 8 times as many consumers now expect Irish house prices will be higher in 2031 as think they will be lower.

While the February 2026 reading of the Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Survey (in partnership with Core Research) does envisage clearly weaker Irish economic growth prospects and marginally softer household incomes, there is a somewhat offsetting expectation of a slightly more entrenched inflationary environment.
It may also be that the resilience in Irish residential property prices in recent years to a wide-ranging succession of economic shocks, a likely continuing imbalance posed by ‘legacy’ unmet demand and limited new supply, together with expectations for stronger future credit growth and intra-generational financial assistance are all seen by consumers as structural forces supporting Irish property values.

Given the strong overall consensus among Irish consumers on the outlook for house prices, there were no major demographic differences in consumer thinking, with all key groups showing large majorities expecting higher future property prices.
At the margin, however, those under 45 were not as strongly of the view that house prices will be higher in five years’ time as were those aged over 55. Perhaps reflecting affordability issues the balance envisaging higher property prices tended to increase with consumers’ income levels.

Tomorrow to be quite like today?

The broad picture Irish consumers currently have of the economic future is not all that dramatically different from that of today. In line with most forecasts, economic growth is seen slowing. However, the sense that household incomes will not change dramatically while pressures on house prices and broader inflation will persist implies that consumers don’t envisage any dramatic changes in their economic circumstances.

While that may appear none too concerning in relation to the outlook for economic growth, the survey findings highlighting constraints on living standards and continuing concerns around housing and the cost-of-living might suggest its fruits in terms of Irish consumers expectations of progress and prosperity are relatively muted.

The Credit Union Irish Consumer Sentiment Survey is a monthly survey of a nationally representative sample of 1,000 adults. Since May 2019, Core Research have undertaken the survey administration and data collection for the Survey. This tranche of the survey was live between February 4^th and 16^th 2026.

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