NI Consumers remain gloomy on economic outlook – almost half predict activity will be weaker in five

Posted on: 06 Mar 2026

Findings from the latest quarterly Credit Union Northern Ireland Consumer Sentiment Survey (in partnership with Core Research) show that almost half (47%) of consumers think that the Northern Ireland economy will be weaker in five years’ time, just 19% think it will be stronger. In keeping with the quarterly consumer sentiment index series, the research also measured consumer sentiment from the last quarter (November 2025-February 2026).

Five Year Consumer View

The special five year lookahead also found that 31% of Northern Ireland consumers think that their own household income will be higher in five years’ time while 27% think theirs will be lower, and one in two (50%) of Northern Ireland consumers think inflation will be higher, while only 18% say it will be lower. The research also found that 73% of consumers think Northern Ireland house prices will be higher in five years’ time, just 8% expect house prices to be lower.

Factors such as geopolitical uncertainty, the performance of the UK and Republic of Ireland economies and issues regarding the financing of the Northern Ireland Assembly have led to a negative medium to long term view of the broad economic outlook.

Encouragingly, those aged under 45 are not as pessimistic as older consumers in relation to prospects for the Northern Ireland economy or their personal financial future, with those aged under 45 much more likely to take a positive view in respect of their own household incomes in five years’ time.

Factors such as persistent cost of living expenses and the continuing upward trajectory of house prices linked to inadequate supply and ongoing demand, meant that a strong majority of Northern consumers think living costs and house prices will be higher in five years’ time.

Northern Ireland Consumer Sentiment (Nov 25 – Feb 26)

Looking at how NI consumer sentiment has evolved through the past three months, it remains largely unchanged overall. Worries concerning the economic outlook have declined slightly, but nervousness about job prospects has increased. The three-month survey also found that worries regarding household finances persist but have eased marginally due to a slowdown of inflation and a small drop in fuel prices during the survey period. inflation. Overall, NI consumers’ mood matches the rest of UK of late but falls slightly short of marginal gains in confidence metrics for other economies. Key findings of the quarter to February 2026 found the following:

• 53% believe the economy will weaken over the next 12 months (down from 53% in November 2025) while 19% believe it will improve (down from 23% in November 2025).
• 44% believe that unemployment will rise over the next 12 months (up from 42% in November 2025). 23% believe it will fall in the next 12 months (down from 29% in November 2025).
• 40% believe the financial situation of their household is worse now than 12 months ago (versus 42% in November 2025), while 25% believe it has improved (versus 27% in November 2025).
• 27% feel the financial situation of their household will improve over the next 12 months (the same as 27% recorded in November 2025), while 34% believe it will weaken (the same as 34% in November 2025).
• 14% of Northern Ireland consumers believe November was a good time to buy big ticket items (the same as 14% in November 2025) and 24% believe it is a bad time (versus 19% in November 2025).

Speaking on the release of the February data and analysis, Martin Fisher, Northern Ireland Manager with the Irish League of Credit Unions noted; “The latest consumer sentiment results are a good indication of how global pressures are impacting locally, particularly when we consider the evolving international situation concerning the Middle East that has emerged since this round of research was undertaken. As such, we would always encourage people to look to their local credit union for any required guidance or support, and also for when they are planning for the future”

Austin Hughes, economist, who prepared the analysis noted; “Northern Ireland consumers are understandably gloomy about longer term economic prospects but mixed views on the outlook for household incomes and the relatively positive thinking of younger consumers are more encouraging signs. While the widely held expectation of higher house prices suggests demand will remain robust, it also emphasises a view that new supply of homes will continue to fall short for some time to come.”

Further detail of the findings and factors contained in the latest quarterly index are detailed in full reports here with the five year analysis report here.

-ENDS-

About the Northern Ireland Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Survey

The Northern Ireland Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Survey is a quarterly survey of a representative sample of 350 adults. Core Research undertake the survey administration and data collection for the survey. This tranche of the survey was live between the 4^th and 18^th February 2026