Sentiment steady in September as consumers await Budget
Posted on: 26 Sep 2025
- Fractional uptick in sentiment suggests no major change in mood of Irish consumers
- Latest reading remains consistent with continuing consumer caution rather than collapse
- Does slight uplift in consumer thinking on household finances suggest some expectation of Budget ’26 support?
- Special questions focus on consumers top three priorities and their expectations for Budget ‘26
- 48% of consumers see improving healthcare as a priority
- 45% cite addressing the shortfall in housing
- 42% regard supports to deal with cost-of-living as a priority
- 11% cite preventing the Irish economy from overheating
- 10% of consumers see cutting VAT for hospitality sector as a top three Budget priority
- 7% of consumers expect a significant budget boost to their living standards, with 26% expecting a slight boost.
- 51% of Irish consumers do not think Budget ’26 will improve their living standards
Speaking on the release of the September data and analysis, David Malone, CEO of the Irish League of Credit Unions noted; "The September sentiment survey suggests that Irish consumers are understandably cautious at present. The looming Budget coupled with an uncertain global outlook make this a challenging time for many consumers trying to navigate opportunities as well as difficulties in their personal finances. However as the economic climate changes, consumers can always rely on the guidance and support of their local credit union to help them build a better financial future.
Summary
Irish consumer sentiment edged fractionally higher in September, effectively signalling no change in consumer thinking of late. Worries about the outlook for the economy, warnings about the looming Budget ’26, and weakness in spending power are all weighing on the mood of Irish consumers at present. That said, the September survey suggests that the current mood of Irish consumers is one of concern rather than collapse.
Irish consumer confidence has not changed markedly through the past five months as the negative impact of US tariffs has yet to translate into materially changed economic conditions here while the persistence of largely positive domestic data has broadly offset increasing concerns around a pick-up in grocery prices.
In circumstances where economic and financial news-flow has been noisy and largely negative, it is not at all surprising that Irish consumers remain cautious and concerned. However, household incomes have been supported by a heathy jobs market and the various measures introduced in last year’s Budget.
The general tone of the September survey as well as responses to a special question asked this month survey suggest consumers do not expect any marked boost to spending power from the upcoming Budget ’26 but they do look for measures that will deliver progress on longstanding problems in areas such as housing and healthcare together with meaningful support with cost-of-living pressures.
Section I; September survey suggests Irish consumer mood is anxious rather than awful
As the table below indicates, the Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Survey (in partnership with Core Research) shows an index reading of 61.7, in September up fractionally on the 61.1 reading reported for August, which itself was marginally up from the 59.1 figure reported for July.
While Sentiment has edged up in both of the past two months, the September reading of 61.7 is slightly lower than in June (62.5) and significantly lower than that seen in March (67.5) just before the early-April US tariff announcement. It is also the case that sentiment remains well below year ago levels (71.9) and even further below the 83.8 long-term average of the survey.
Although sentiment remains subdued at present, it has stabilised in recent months, suggesting Irish consumers are currently in ‘watch and worry’ mode rather than becoming increasingly negative. It remains to be seen what scale of impacts US tariffs will have on the economy and what size and shape domestic fiscal measures will take to support spending power and tackle structural problems in the Irish economy.
Steady Sentiment in Ireland contrasts with slippage in US and UK
In contrast to the effectively unchanged sentiment reading in Ireland, US consumer sentiment fell for a second consecutive month in September (although it remains similarly above its recent April trough). The report’s authors cite weakening household finances and a poorer economic outlook on the part of lower and middle-income US consumers, consistent with weaker US employment data and somewhat higher inflation of late as well as the very uneven distributional impact of the recent US fiscal package.
UK consumer confidence fell back in September after what we had felt might prove a temporary bounce in August following the Bank of England rate cut last month. With the UK fiscal position deteriorating ahead of the November Budget and a range of difficulties weighing on the Labour Government, a drop in UK consumer sentiment in relation to the economic outlook and household finances is not at all surprising.
In contrast to developments in the US and UK, the early estimate of Euro area consumer confidence improved modestly in September. In keeping with the recent trend in the Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Survey (in partnership with Core Research) data for Ireland, the EU Commission noted that in spite of the latest improvement, the Euro area confidence indicator ‘has shown a relatively stable trend since April 2025, significantly below its historical average’.
Small increase in economic worries offset by slight easing in financial concerns.
The monthly changes in the main elements of the Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Survey (in partnership with Core Research) were all very modest and largely offsetting in September.
There was a modest weakening in those areas of the survey related to the economy reversing a slight bounce in August, while a slight improvement in household finance elements followed a drop in those components last month. So, there is a sense of small noisy movements around largely unchanged thinking on the economic and financial conditions faced by Irish consumers.
While the weakening in thinking on the economic outlook was limited in September, it may reflect a spate of domestic publications through the survey period warning on the outlook for the economy and the public finances.
The pre-Budget assessment of the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council warned that the Government ‘was flying blind’ on the public finances, the Dept of Finance’s Debt Report highlighted a relatively high per-capita public debt of €40,500, it’s ‘Future Forty’ demographic outlook noted looming age-related costs to the public finances, and the Dept of Public Expenditure and Reform’s spending document cited a 54% increase in public spending over the past five years. (The Central Bank Bulletin which conveyed similar warnings on the public finances was released just after the September survey closed)
While most of the detail in these reports was notably (and correctly) less alarmist, the headlines to which most Irish consumers were exposed tended to suggest Ireland’s public finances and economic management were set on a dangerous trajectory.
The September sentiment survey also saw a small weakening in thinking on the outlook for jobs. Again, this should be seen in the context of an increase in the previous month. However, there were also slightly softer (but still solid) gains in employment in the latest labour force survey and a range of small redundancy announcements in recent weeks.
Reversing the trend seen in the August survey, there were modest improvements in the household finances elements of the September sentiment reading. On the face of it, this may seem surprising as the survey period saw numerous media reports highlighting rapid increases in grocery bills and a number of announcements of looming increases in energy bills. We discuss some possible influences in this regard in the paragraphs below.
First, and most important, it should be noted that the September survey still shows markedly negative balances in Irish consumers’ views on their household finances. In that regard, the September survey results don’t signal dramatically different thinking on ongoing cost-of-living pressures.
While there were announcements of looming increases in electricity charges from a number of companies, the largest electricity provider (by some distance) announced unchanged electricity prices and an intention to cut gas prices for its customers by 4%. As a result, it seems more consumers got reassuring news on energy prices during the survey period than headlines might suggest.
In addition, EU data on weekly energy price movements indicate that the survey period saw a slight drop in petrol prices and larger if still modest falls in diesel and home heating oil prices. As a result, the news around Irish energy costs during the September was less threatening than the noise.
There was also a small but significant tonal change in Government comments on the upcoming Budget that hinted at adjustments intended to underpin spending power, with senior ministers indicating that ‘once-off’ support measures would be replaced by ‘more permanent, targeted measures’ in Budget ‘26.
The sense of no marked change in the current trajectory of consumer spending was suggested by an effectively unchanged September sentiment survey reading on big-ticket buying plans.
We continue to highlight marked differences in spending power across the spectrum of Irish consumers at present. With numbers living and working in Ireland increasing, this implies that even with average household incomes constrained, aggregate consumer spending should at least increase modestly.
Section II - Budget ’26; Are Irish consumers among the ‘fiscal faithful’ or trapped into traitorous thinking on what Budget ’26 should do?
As usual, the Credit Union Consumer Sentiment Survey (in partnership with Core Research) included a couple of supplementary questions on topics of current interest. As was the case in September 2023 and September 2024, this month’s survey asked a representative sample of Irish consumers what they felt should be the priorities of the upcoming Budget ’26 which will be delivered on October 7th.
Consumers were asked what they felt should be the three main priorities for the Budget package. So, the results shown in the table below show the number of consumers who gave each response as one of their three options. (Consequently, the total of responses sums to 300%).
In each of the past three years, the main focus of consumers in terms of priority Budget measures is on infrastructure. This hints at both the scale of difficulties in this area and, perhaps also, at a measure of disappointment and/or frustration at very limited progress in this regard in the interim. Alongside the emphasis on infrastructure is a continuing prioritisation of cost-of-living supports. These elements tend to be far more important in consumer thinking than other issues.
By and large, there has been little shift in consumer thinking as to what the priorities for Budget’26 should be compared to previous Budgets but the inclusion of an additional option, a VAT cut for the hospitality sector has seen most headings attract slightly smaller shares of consumer preferences than in 2023 or 2024.
Improvements in healthcare are still seen as a key issue for Budget ’26, with 48% of consumers citing this as a priority. While this represents a drop from the 55% of consumers referencing healthcare ahead of Budget ’25, it doesn’t signal any marked change in the relative importance attached to this area.
Not surprisingly, older consumers tended to mention healthcare most frequently in the 2025 survey but there was also a comparatively large emphasis among the under 25’s. Females tended to prioritise healthcare more than males while those making ends meet with ease also cited healthcare more frequently than those with difficulties making ends meet.
Housing should also be a priority for Budget ’26 according to 45% of Irish consumers, maintaining the major focus on this issue seen in previous years. Perhaps surprisingly, housing was prioritised more frequently among the over 55’s than among younger age groups. It tended to increase in emphasis with incomes and was also cited comparatively frequently by consumers in Dublin and female consumers.
A sense of continuing strains on household spending power is emphasised by 42% of Irish consumers prioritising cost-of-living supports. The fact that this share is unchanged from 2024 underlines the persistence of pressures in this area. This area was more frequently cited by female consumers than males, by consumers outside the capital than in Dublin and by those indicating difficulty making ends meet. It was also mentioned with increasing frequency with ages up to 55 but notably less among older consumers.
Some distance behind the priority attached to infrastructure and cost-of-living supports, 31% of consumers cited specific measure in relation to energy costs. This tended to figure more prominently in responses by those outside Dublin, by those aged over 55 and by consumers facing difficulties making ends meet.
Some 27% of consumers indicated that easing the tax burden on workers should be a priority for Budget ’26, broadly similar to the results in each of the two previous years. This tended to feature more commonly in responses by consumers aged between 25 and 55, and also increased in frequency with income with the exception of those in the highest income ranges.
In spite of a pronounced media emphasis and economic policy advice on the dangers of ‘giveaway’ measures in the Budget, it remains the case that relatively small numbers of consumers feel Budget ’26 should prioritise ‘the stability of the public finances’ (14%), ‘putting funds aside to deal with an ageing population’ (14%) or ‘any future shortfall in tax revenues’ (13%) or ‘preventing the economy from overheating (11%)’. However, not surprisingly in light of tariff-related uncertainty, there was a significant increase to 13% from 9% in last years survey in the number of consumers indicating a preference for putting funds aside to deal with any future tax shortfall.
These ‘prudence-focussed’ responses tended to be given more frequently by male consumers than females, and by those aged under 25 than older age groups, although the over 55’s also tended to mention measures to deal with an ageing population than other groups. Significantly, this might suggest those most directly affected financially by the financial crash do not prioritise measures that many economic institutions suggest would lessen the likelihood of a future downturn.
For the September 2025 survey we also included a cut in the VAT rate on the hospitality sector as a possible Budget priority. Just 10% of consumers cited a VAT cut as one of their three Budget priorities, the lowest share of responses among the thirteen options put before consumers in the survey.
As was the case a year ago, the September 2025 sentiment survey also asked consumers the extent to which Budget ’26 was likely to alter the outlook for their living standards.
As the diagram below illustrates, consumers expectations for substantial support from Budget ’26 are quite limited, and notably more modest than a year ago. In that respect, it would seem that pre-Budget commentary emphasising limited room for manoeuvre has had some dampening impact on expectations.
The diagram suggests that there is little or no expectation of a ‘Giveaway’ Budget, in the sense of consumers receiving a marked boost to their household finances. Of course, definitions differ widely as to what might constitute a ‘giveaway’ in current circumstances.
Dublin consumers tended to have greater expectations of a fiscal boost than other parts of the country while there was also a notably greater tendency among those aged under 45 than among older consumers to expect some Budget boost. Male consumers expectations for Budget support was also higher than that of females.
What does the sentiment survey suggest Irish consumers want from Budget’26?
In broad terms, the September 2025 sentiment survey responses continue to show a marked preference for addressing infrastructure shortcomings and supporting spending power than ‘fiscal prudence’ measures. This likely reflects the immediacy and the urgency of the former and more convoluted jesuitical definitions of the latter.
It is sometimes suggested that Irish consumers have forgotten the lessons of the crash. However, it seems more likely that the current and prospective strength of the Irish public finances vis-à-vis a wide range of other countries, coupled with the legacy of the crash in terms of large deficits in economic and social infrastructure, mean that many consumers do not seem to agree with the implicit judgement that the only real crisis is a fiscal crisis.
It may be that Irish consumers feel near-term fiscal risks are overstated relative to more threatening realities. It is worth noting that the Central Bank’s latest estimate of how large the Budget deficit might be if all ‘excess’ tax revenues evaporate next year is a General Government deficit of 3.4% of national income. This effectively worst-case scenario for Ireland is on a par with the latest ECB projections of an average Euro area deficit of 3.2% in 2026, and those official forecasts likely understate the difficulty in reining in French and Belgian deficits of circa 6% of GDP or the impact on deficits of increased defence spending across much of Europe.
In the same vein, it is entirely understandable that the average consumer would not be particularly focussed on ‘overheating’ concerns in the Irish economy. However, it should also be noted that restrained private sector borrowing and contained domestic inflation relative to trends abroad coupled with a significant underlying external surplus and a slight cooling in the labour market of late combine to suggest that the current ‘macro’ position is not acutely threatening in this respect at present.
While the sentiment survey suggests Irish consumers expect support to offset cost-of-living pressures, there is also a strong emphasis on improving infrastructure to enhance the economic and social capacity of the country. Such improvements might also be regarded as strengthening the capacity to withstand future difficulties rather more than running a larger fiscal surplus at present might do.
As was the case in responses to this question in previous years, it seems that Irish consumers regard threats to the public finances as altogether less fundamental and damaging to future prosperity at present than those presented by current failings in infrastructure and pressure on living standards of significant numbers of households.
The Credit Union Irish Consumer Sentiment Survey is a monthly survey of a nationally representative sample of 1,000 adults. Since May 2019, Core Research have undertaken the survey administration and data collection for the Survey. This tranche of the survey was live between the 4th and 17th September 2025.